Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.042233 0.047642 0.053641 0.060816 0.069204 0.078743 0.090477
2026-02-08 0.034455 0.041335 0.049571 0.060258 0.073908 0.090963 0.114209
2026-02-15 0.028882 0.036520 0.046288 0.059918 0.078804 0.104601 0.143499
2026-02-22 0.024882 0.033000 0.044033 0.060519 0.085239 0.122155 0.183967
2026-03-01 0.021616 0.029933 0.041884 0.060925 0.091732 0.141996 0.235758
2026-03-08 0.018521 0.026626 0.038854 0.059491 0.095297 0.158821 0.290596
2026-03-15 0.015473 0.022936 0.034658 0.055423 0.093682 0.166770 0.333870
2026-03-22 0.013789 0.021115 0.033131 0.055573 0.099788 0.191729 0.427706
2026-03-29 0.012574 0.019875 0.032369 0.056973 0.108897 0.226980 0.571233
2026-04-05 0.011361 0.018465 0.031088 0.057163 0.115793 0.260958 0.741199
2026-04-12 0.010277 0.017129 0.029731 0.056942 0.121914 0.296678 0.954276
2026-04-19 0.009219 0.015700 0.027979 0.055543 0.124976 0.326458 1.183910
2026-04-26 0.008166 0.014169 0.025841 0.052957 0.124634 0.347697 1.416211
2026-05-03 0.007516 0.013327 0.024970 0.053137 0.132024 0.399617 1.892800
2026-05-10 0.006951 0.012580 0.024187 0.053386 0.139949 0.460365 2.565094
2026-05-17 0.006507 0.012020 0.023723 0.054362 0.150753 0.542649 3.643302
2026-05-24 0.006094 0.011474 0.023204 0.055099 0.161350 0.635567 5.205491
2026-05-31 0.005619 0.010740 0.022151 0.054138 0.165834 0.705338 6.916097
2026-06-07 0.005055 0.009756 0.020376 0.050744 0.160117 0.717184 7.987949
2026-06-14 0.004760 0.009330 0.019889 0.051073 0.169274 0.827857 11.591690
2026-06-21 0.004549 0.009067 0.019763 0.052500 0.183913 0.996386 18.617956
2026-06-28 0.004302 0.008696 0.019314 0.052809 0.194105 1.152762 28.561868
2026-07-05 0.004060 0.008311 0.018778 0.052721 0.202669 1.314809 43.779622